There’s a fascinating article out by AZCentral.com regarding the question as to whether the City of Phoenix’s population is actually shrinking for the first time. This is a great piece in that the data (trash, crime, water usage, foreclosures and vacant homes in Phoenix real estate market, tax rolls, immigration, etc.) and argument it cites questions a long-held belief that Phoenix will always continue to grow.
“For the first time in modern history, Phoenix’s population could be shrinking…Now, a variety of indicators suggest that fewer people are living here than a year ago.
No one knows for sure exactly how many people have moved in or out. But with the 2010 census about to get under way, some indicators suggest Phoenix’s population may be smaller than the projected 1,636,170 people.”
Click to read “Phoenix May Be Losing People” to read the entire article.
If you consider the city plans for each major city, many are going to cite planning for significant population growth over the next 20 years. For Phoenix, this article puts that thinking in question and is a good question to raise. Other cities should ask this question as well for the future even if they aren’t experiencing similar declines in city services as cited in the article.
My own take is that some of the issues are dependent on the level of opportunity here in Arizona for workers. Construction has been hit incredibly hard and so jobs in that industry are harder to find. However, the slump will not last forever and when it does begin to pick up, we should expect more residents coming to the Phoenix and the Valley again. I also believe that the current economic outlook across the country is forcing many to stay put and not risk a move to the area given the high uncertainty regarding jobs. I agree with Mayor Phil Gordon on the prospects for Phoenix when we move past this slump.
So, if the area really did experience a reduction in residents here, I would be inclined that it is temporary in nature due to the very adverse circumstances the country faces.
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